Rugby Union – CodexCaster's Contribution

Rugby Union: World Cup 2019 – Pool Stage Review

Wales 43 – 14 Georgia
Wales 29 – 25 Australia
Wales 29 – 17 Fiji
Wales 35 – 13 Uruguay

Surface level analysis would conclude that Wales are heading into their quarter-final against France in strong form. They have won all their games in Pool D of the tournament. Unfortunately as with all things, the reality paints a more complex picture. Wales have looked stronger than their warm up games would suggest. They are probably favourites to beat France in the QF, but as a fan I’m somewhat underwhelmed.

The most recent match with Uruguay featured 13 changes to the team and rested some key players, as always with Wales, lots of changes resulted in a mess frankly. Wales were inaccurate, with so many passes going behind players or going to ground, and a fantastic performance from Uruguay made them look far more challenging than the difference in the world rankings would suggest. Emblematic of this were two disallowed tries due to two forward passes, simple errors that cost points.

This alludes to there still being a gulf between the probable players and the possible players. Wales appear to be dangerously on the edge with one or two injuries being all it would take to derail the high level of execution the game plan demands.

Against Australia, Wales were amazing in the first half but then didn’t do much else but defend for the final third (heroically admittedly), but for a moment it looked like at some point Australia were going to break the red wall again and sneak the game. Wales seem determined to kick the ball away no matter what and “trust their defence” I just wish they would hold onto the ball longer and play the final moments in the opposition half, not camped on their own line.

Wales were also given a fright against, Fiji who played really well and tore the Welsh defence apart. For the neutral these games were fantastic, but for me Wales should have enforced their will on their opposition rather more emphatically, especially versus Fiji and Uruguay.

The Welsh game plan is based around a high level of execution. Kicking, claiming the ball in the air, getting the defensive line up correctly etc are all basic skills of the game that teams will emphasize, but for Wales they all need to be there for the machine to start grinding out points. You only need to look at the Uruguay game to see how the plan falls apart when the basics are missing. We have lost a bit of the flair for a more pragmatic, approach.

Wales should have enough to beat France who are hilariously inconsistent. I expect the Welsh defence to stifle the France attack and force lots of mistakes for Wales to set up camp in the French half and start racking up points. Overall I cannot really complain as Wales have won all their pool games and will face France instead of the far trickier England. I am pleased, but the games were not ones I could sit back and relax in that’s for sure.

Wales vs England World Cup Warm Up #1

Wales 19 – 33 England

On paper this looked to be a very simple affair for Wales, they were coming in to the game having won a Grand Slam and on a 14 game winning streak. Due to Australia beating New Zealand, Wales stood to become the #1 team in the world by winning this game. England on the other hand were fielding a team of outsiders, players who were not mainstays of the starting XV but who were getting a chance to create some selection headaches for Eddie Jones.

They managed to do exactly that. England piled on the pressure early on with some quick scores and never really let go of the advantage. The English forwards were dominant in the scrum and around the fringes.

The Welsh by comparison looked tired. They have been enduring a reportedly grueling fitness camp in Switzerland and it showed. There was no line speed in defense, no English player getting hammered backwards in contact and not a great deal happening at all. The lineout was horrendous, wasting an opportunity for one try and gifting an opportunity for an English try.

There is no where really to turn, Wales were thoroughly beaten, their only period of dominance came alongside a succession of English penalties.

Both teams will repeat this test this weekend, only this time doing so in Cardiff. Wales have lost Gareth Anscombe to injury for their World Cup campaign and now need to quickly find a backup for him.

Whatever the result, England looked to gain a lot more than Wales. Even if Wales won it wouldn’t have shown us much, yes the Grand Slam XV beat a second string England team, congratulations. England however, tested lots of players and some, like Tom Curry and Jonathan Joseph performed spectacularly.

It will be interesting to see selection for the game in Cardiff. Will Gatland try and prevent the 0-2 to England or will he risk it and try out some different players?

No one will remember these warm up games, they are more to get players match fit going in to the World Cup seeing as all the southern hemisphere sides will have just completed The Rugby Championship. It was depressing as a fan however to see such a lethargic and inaccurate Welsh performance.

Rugby Union: Six Nations 2019: Wales vs Ireland

Wales 25 – 7 Ireland

In what was to be Warren Gatland’s last Six Nations game in charge of Wales, his team utterly smashed Ireland to win their third Grand Slam in 11 years under his guidance. No other coach in five/six Nations history has won three Grand Slams. Ireland were rocked early by a Hadleigh Parkes try from an Anscombe chip over the defence and then punished by penalty after penalty. The water-tight Welsh defence only cracked after the full 80 minutes had elapsed and the game was sealed. In this victory, Wales claim their spot as the second best team in the world rankings, behind only the All Blacks.

Wales dominated Ireland so completely, that they never looked like scoring. As a fan I wasn’t really nervous, whenever Ireland did get the ball they gave away penalties or made mistakes that swung momentum back in Wales’ favour, which more often than not added just a few more points to the board through Anscombe’s boot. Not many outside of that Wales team saw this result coming. Wales have relied on a herculean defence all tournament and not really fired in attack. Surely Ireland were going to figure them out, but it never came.

With the forwards unable to win the collisions and provide Murray with quick ball so key to Ireland’s game, Sexton was unbalanced. He was forced into more kicking than he’d like and made uncharacteristic errors. On two or three occasions, huge kicks were straight into touch handing Wales amazing field position. The one attack that Ireland did make was covered brilliantly by a Hadleigh Parkes tackle and they never really threatened after. What was particularly impressive was that Wales never eased, they never looked like the game was in the bag and they played the full 80 minutes. I thought it noteworthy that with Biggar on the field, Gareth Anscombe kept the kicking duties. It will be good for his development to have had that exposure to finishing off a game.

From this, Wales are in an amazing position going in to the World Cup. They have beaten South Africa and Australia and secured the Grand Slam. They have the mentality to endure patches of opposition momentum by trusting their defence and are incredibly patient in attack. They are equally comfortable in attacking through the forwards as they are through the backs. They run the ball from 9 through their patient attack with the forwards, allowing the Fly-Half to sit back and watch for gaps to then call for the pass and attack. With Biggar/Anscombe and Liam Williams/Halfpenny they have the personnel to change the way they play. In the time before the World Cup I would love Wales to work on breaking down defences more and securing their own lineout – two weaknesses so far. As a fan I still can’t get over the potential of this team, they won a Grand Slam but playing pretty poorly for a lot of it.

Against France Wales were gifted two tries through mistakes, they limped past Italy and Scotland. They weathered the storm against an England side who refused to change tactics and kicked them possession all game, and then dominated Ireland. If they can build an attack as effective as their defence, I can see them getting deep in the World Cup. Perhaps even avenging ‘The Red Card of 2011‘ and setting up a World Cup final with the All Blacks.

Those Wales players are professionals in every sense, lead by the mesmeric, talismanic, herculean (yet humble) Alun-Wyn Jones. Huge congratulations to everyone involved. Thanks also to Warren Gatland. The man who took Welsh rugby from a pretty depressing place to where it is today, a global force.

Rugby Union: Six Nations 2019: Wales vs Scotland

Wales 18 – 11 Scotland

There is an old adage in the NFL “Offence wins games, defence wins championships”, that is certainly a good description of Wales this Six Nations. This game also. Wales scored points to be ahead and then waited to see if Scotland would score enough to force Wales to reignite their attack or just contain Scotland and press for victory.

It was clear in the second half that Wales switched off and Scotland roared to life, maybe Wales had one eye on the Grand Slam already and suffered for it. They reverted to their structure and just absorbed Scottish pressure, there was a period of Scottish attack where they lost about 20m just by being hammered backwards. The Scottish try was stunning from a lightning quick inside ball from Finn Russel, an area where Scotland attacked Wales fairly often through the game. It was my personal favourite try of the tournament thus far. It was a shame for Scotland that the damage was done in the first half and striking once wasn’t enough to put them in position to win the game.

Andy Nicol, the Scottish representative on the analyst desk was challenged by Guscott for taking the positives out of the game and I’m inclined to agree with the latter. Scotland do that too much, the bottom line is for all their positives they will finish 5^th in the Six Nations. They have a host of injuries yes, but they also created enough opportunities to beat teams and were too inaccurate to convert them into points. Even Italy managed to score two great tries against England. No one has really been on top form so far and Scotland could have been in a far stronger position heading into their match against England.

This Welsh defence needs a special mention. It’s build around players trusting each other to do their jobs so they don’t swamp the breakdown often leaving 13 players in the defensive line with only a full-back in the back field. The core of this team have been together so long that each man knows the strengths and habits of those outside him. The players get off the floor quickly and are able to get back in line so there is always a red wall. Also the ability of players like North being able to get over the ball and secure turnover means attackers have to stack the ruck to prevent the ball carrier getting isolated. Tipuric and Navidi topped the tackle charts at 24 and 23 respectively, and Wales made something like 200 tackles in the game, showing the herculean effort.

I’m glad that Wales had this defensive test against Scotland, I think it will help them far more than had they stormed to an easy victory. Looking forward to Ireland, they will probably provide the sternest test to Warren Gatland’s red wall. Their forwards are huge and unused to taking backward steps and the backline are far more clinical and effective than Scotland’s. They are a team used to winning the big game and being as strategic as their opponent. I’m fascinated to see who can implement their game plan and how the game will take shape. It really is too close to call and the home crowd demanding a Grand Slam may just be enough to sway me into predicting a Welsh win.

I’m getting excited now, come on Wales!

Rugby Union: Six Nations 2019: Wales vs England

Wales 21 – 13 England

Warren Gatland had said before the game that Wales would be a different animal compared to what we had seen for the first two games. He was correct. The contact and collisions in the game were colossal, to the point that I was genuinely wincing at times. England played well and deserved their half time lead of 10 – 3.

England had two elements to their game plan, the first was to kick early and often allowing Wales possession. The second part was the herculean defensive effort and blitz defensive structure to put pressure on Wales and force them into making mistakes. The plan worked against Ireland and after 40 minutes it appeared to be working against Wales.

Wales were expected to try and get the ball wide, beyond the blitz defence and exploit the gaps out wide, instead they kept the attack within it and with the forwards, powering through drive after drive. In the second half, the English accuracy faltered and the Welsh strategy proved to be successful. The first Welsh try came from a staggering 35 phases of play with the ball going wide only twice. This is not how anyone would expect a Welsh side to play, but they went at England’s strength and beat them at it.

What may have hampered the English kicking game was Liam Williams, the man of the match and specialist Full-Back was imperious in the air and had a tremendous game, looking dangerous all over the field. Dan Biggar, when he came on at 61 minutes also boosted Welsh dominance in that area. After Gareth Davies had a clearance kick charged down in the Welsh 22, Biggar calmly as anything smashed the ball 60m downfield and into touch. Magnificent.

As Wales crept ahead and started to look more comfortable England didn’t change. There was a single moment of danger when Manu Tuilagi sped past Hadleigh Parkes, but he was unsupported and the threat was quickly snuffed out. Aside from that I can’t remember a single other English attack in the second half. I could probably count the number of passes Tuilagi received on one hand.

Wales are becoming a very dangerous side, already they could play the expansive style, but this game showed they have the power and accuracy to dominate up front. Meaning defences can’t be too wide and risk being punished around the ruck, but then can’t overcompensate and leave the wide channels unmarked. Dan Biggar’s stunning cross-kick leading to the final Welsh try, demonstrating that threat.

Just to touch on the debate over who the Welsh Fly-Half should be, Anscombe has a different skillset to Biggar, but there were a few occasions where he wasn’t doing what he normally does. On a couple of penalty or turnover situations he chose to kick first (not as well as Biggar would have) instead of attack the line and bring in runners. If that is what he’s going to do on the field, we may as well have Biggar doing it better. I would pick Anscombe for Scotland, mainly to rest Biggar and give Anscombe more time, as it can’t be bad having two options. Scotland are tired, demoralised and wounded, there may well be a lot of success for a more aggressive 10 and allow him to build confidence.

Gatland has challenged his team to not rest on this English win and push on to do something special in the Six Nations. The Grand-Slam is on, Wales have Scotland in Murrayfield and then face Ireland in Cardiff. They will fear neither of these teams. I expect injury ravaged Scotland to be swept aside, Ireland will be tough but the Cardiff crowd demanding the Grand Slam and a confident Welsh team can’t be stopped.

I’m really looking forward to Alun Wyn Jones, the titanic, herculean captain to lift the trophy in front of the congregation of the cathedral of Welsh rugby.

Rugby Union: Six Nations 2019: Wales v Italy

Wales 26 – 15 Italy

The headlines before the game were talking about the 10 changes that coach Warren Gatland had made to the team that beat France a week ago, the conversation was about how effective Wales would be at imposing a game plan on Italy with so much disruption. Those fears were rather justified. Wales struggled to get going and struggled generally across the game to put a fierce Italian team away.

I feel bad moaning as Wales scored almost double the points and have equalled their record 11 wins in a row, but when you look at how England demolished France in the first half of their game I was left feeling rather jealous. Wales and England go on to face each other on the 23rd Feb 2019, England will be seeing themselves as favourites. They are looking incredibly strong, they beat Ireland through sheer muscle power, and beat France with tactical perfection. It’s no surprise that Wales will have to improve to face them.

Against Italy the backs were nonthreatening and the lineout was garbage, facets that will need to be corrected, and probably will be. Dan Biggar, the saviour a week ago against France, didn’t do himself many favours to be picked against England. Though I have a feeling his defensive strength and aerial imperiousness may just edge him ahead of Anscombe. Wales need to be accurate and strong. It’s so frustrating that the politics surrounding Welsh rugby is keeping Rhys Webb out of the number 9 jersey. In an area where Wales is struggling, having his lethality, bravery and pace really lifts the tempo, a key component of their game plan. Aled Davies, when he did get quick ball, looked hesitant and lethargic, only for a few seconds but that’s all it takes for international level defences to reset.

Gatland is often proven correct in the long run and did lots of good things, players were itching for a chance to play and Gatland offered it to them, trusting them to get the job done. Strength in depth is the best it has ever been and lets not forget that at the end of the season there awaits the World Cup, where depth is absolutely vital. It is, however, a mark of how much we expect from Wales to be disappointed with this game. You get the feeling England and Ireland are going to demolish Italy, and bonus points could be crucial in the context of the tournament. It could be possible that Gatland isn’t focused on winning the Six Nations but focused on the World Cup, the one trophy that has eluded him thus far in his successful career.

Rugby Union: Six Nations 2019: Wales vs France

I’ve purposefully waited a little bit longer than usual to post about this game because there was a lot of emotion tied up in it and I wasn’t quite sure what I felt. With a bit of distance it’s time to look back. From the context of the record breaking autumn series, Wales were terrible in the first half. The weather was a factor but it certainly didn’t bother the French who only had a single handling error compared to 10 from the Welsh. That kind of inaccuracy just stifles any kind of momentum and continually gives possession over to the French, who played the best rugby I’ve seen them play in a long time.

At half time the score was 16-0 to France, deservedly so. The game seemed to turn at half time with France handing Wales two tries from horrendous mistakes. One was from Huget failing to touch the ball down behind his own try line allowing North to dive on it, the second from three absurdly bad French passes leading to a North interception try.

Wales benefitted hugely from Dan Biggar coming into the game. It wasn’t the kind of game for Anscombe and his kicking out of hand was not effective enough to not be punished by the return kick from Lopez. Biggar is far stronger in the air, is better at the territorial game and a bit more strategic in moving the pieces around him, he’s also a more solid defensive option.

There’s little point at this stage in criticising the “long and on” kicking strategy of Wales. I can see the logic of keeping the tempo high to tire out the huge French forwards, but lets just say the execution needs to be better. It happened on so many occasions where France would gain the ball and punish Wales harder and gain more ground than where the kick was taken, which is so frustrating to watch.

What did infuriate me however, was the decision to kick long at the end of the game allowing France a chance to come back at Wales. All they had to do was tap, take one ruck and then kick the ball out. Keep control of the game in that circumstance, if you have the ball then the other team can’t score. Look at it this way, to complete a ruck and a kick has a lot less risk than a long kick allowing a French counterattack.

I think as a whole rugby needs to deal with the period of the game that occurs between the 10m lines, it seems like it’s too much of a risk to play there because too many kickers have 50m range these days, so the only tactic appears to be the up-and-under. This just boils down to “Well, we don’t know what to do here, so let’s kick it and see if we catch it 10m further down the field where things will be different.” I think this is an area for some innovation.

The bottom line is Wales won, they’ve won 10 games in a row, and in the past this would have been another addition to the “Wales left themselves too much to do after a bad start” list of games. It’s also true that Wales improve over the course of the Six Nations, so I expect a lot of improvements in accuracy and handling. As a Welsh rugby fan I should be happier that Wales won badly, having watched so many games of them losing well.

Looking forward I expect Wales to beat Italy, quite convincingly, Wales are simply too strong and I can’t see a win condition for Italy outside of Welsh mistakes. Italy have never managed to address the final quarter weakness in their game, I don’t have any stats to hand but from my impressions a vast amount of Italian points conceded would be in the last 20 minutes

Rugby Union: Wales Autumn Campaign 2018: Tonga

Wales 74 – 24 Tonga

Warren Gatland made 14 changes to the team that beat Australia, and destroyed Tonga in a ten try demolition. Having secured the perfect start scoring three fast tries, Tonga fought back to take the score to 24-24 just after half time. Then came the onslaught of 50 unanswered points as the Wales 2nd stringers were ruthless in exploiting the tired Tongan defense. Wales will face South Africa in their last game, which if they win will be the first clean sweep in an Autumn series.

I can’t see Gatland making too many changes to the first XV. The players that beat Australia deserve another chance against South Africa. I can see Liam Williams possibly forcing himself onto the team as he is fantastic at putting himself into the action and looking for work. He scored his 10th try with a superb finish keeping his feet off the ground to touch the ball down, and was vital in Aled Davies scoring also. Williams got smashed in one tackle, giving an excellent offload, then getting back in play receiving a pass from Ellis Jenkins and delivering the final pass to Davies who raced away to score. That kind of effort, pace, and link play would surely have earned himself a spot on the bench. I’m a huge fan of George North, but Williams can create something out of nothing. If Leigh Halfpenny isn’t fit, then Williams would be an excellent threat from Full-Back to give Wales an extra attacking dimension.

Wales were smart in the way they dispatched Tonga. They knew full well that the big Tongan defenders were going to line them up for a huge hit, which they did. Wales however, changed the point of attack by giving late offloads, or inside passes to negate this tactic. It worked superbly. Dan Biggar proved his worth as the best tactical and strategic option at Fly-Half, guiding Wales around the field masterfully and putting in several kicks behind the aggressive, but narrow, defense.

I’m glad Tonga managed to even the score just after half-time. It gave a challenge to these young players and would have tested their character to come back out with a game to win. Through this they would have learned a lot more than winning 74-0. With the World Cup coming in 2019, Wales are building fantastic strength in depth in almost all positions. I can’t remember a time where a Wales “B Team” performed this well. On more than one occasion Gatland has conducted this experiment with disastrous results, epitomised by the 16-16 draw against Fiji in 2010.

South Africa will be the perfect test for this battle hardened Welsh side. They were unlucky to lose to England and secured narrow wins over Scotland and France. Having beaten New Zealand and Australia in September, they are finding their power after a period of transition and I imagine the game will be a close one. I must admit I haven’t watched much of South Africa so I’m not really sure how the two sides will match up. One thing I do know, is that a Welsh side high on confidence and scoring fantastic tries will be a threat to any side in the world. It’s going to be one hell of a test match.

Rugby Union: Wales Autumn Campaign 2018: Australia

Wales 9 – 6 Australia

For the first time since 2008, following a series of 14 consecutive losses, Wales beat Australia in Cardiff nine points to six. That scoreline is hardly one to suggest an exciting game, or it may suggest the weather was dire. The truth is the roof of the stadium was closed and believe it or not the game was exciting. The game was so close in score that every run, every pass, every ruck and every kick meant so much more. It would only take one single mistake to give away the penalty that would see Wales lose to a narrow margin to Australia…again. In the end it was the men in gold that gave away the penalty for Dan Biggar to convert at 76 minutes.

The game was one of strong defences overcoming the attack of the other. Open-side flankers of both sides, Justin Tipuric and Michael Hooper were outstanding over the ball, slowing down quick ball and winning turnovers on numerous occasions. By half time both sides had made 40 tackles and missed just two, what scarce opportunities, attackers did find were quickly snuffed out by desperate defences rallying to shut down breaks.

It was also a bit of a bizarre game, Leigh Halfpenny missed two penalty kicks that on any other day you would bet he would slot. Hooper also made a couple of bizarre decisions that could have actually cost his team the game. Twice in the second half, Australia opted to kick for the corner rather than take the shots at goal. Twice, the line-out was a mess and the Welsh defence managed to clear their lines. In a game of such narrow margins such as this, I don’t really understand what Hooper was thinking. This is the end of a long season for the southern hemisphere team against strong opposition, it doesn’t seem the time to try and score tries for fun with a game on the line. They took the gamble and came away with nothing, but the odds of coming away with six points were far friendlier.

Wales now go on to face Tonga having won their last seven games. They had a successful tour to Argentina and are in the midst of their best Autumn series too. They have already overcome two long streaks. Warren Gatland will hopefully have learned from previous tours to not make too many changes. Wales have made such a mistake before and suffered for it such as in 2010 with the 16-16 draw against Fiji. Wales would do well to field a strong team and hopefully take it as an opportunity to be clinical and score some good tries.

Rugby Union: Wales Autumn Campaign 2018: Scotland

Wales 21 – 10 Scotland

Wales versus Scotland was a strange game, it was clear that both sides had not played for a long time as discipline was an issue throughout. With the number of penalties that both sides were conceding, making it a very stop start affair.

Scotland, having been improving of late, and their coach promising to play the fastest rugby on the planet, faltered. Their attack was narrow and lacking creativity, and as such was very easy to defend.

The Welsh defence was strong but it was hard to truly gauge how strong as they weren’t really tested. The line speed was excellent meaning that Scotland were getting pushed further and further back whenever they had the ball. Eventually being forced to give possession back to the men in red, who looked far more threatening with ball in hand.

Wales took their tries well, with George North evading three tackles, including both centres, to power to the line. It was was also awesome to see Jonathan Davies touch down, after a year out of the game due to injury. He and man of the match Justin Tipuric are two of, in my opinion, the most talented players in Wales.

Wales are notorious for starting slow in their Autumn campaigns, with this being the first opening match win in over fifteen years. It wasn’t pretty, but as Sam Warburton said on the analyst desk, International sport is about winning.

Wales will go on to face Australia on the 11th Nov and that will surely be a far more serious test to see where Wales are. Their defence and discipline will need to be watertight. They will be challenged in ways that they weren’t against Scotland and that will be a fascinating game. Australia like playing in Cardiff and the scores are always close with the Wallabies dominating the “W” column.

I don’t predict Wales will win that game, but I’m always happy to be wrong.